THIS TIME: ANOTHER MEASURE OF A CANDIDATE’S WORTH, THE NUMBER OF SUPPORTERS.

Last time we looked at the total of individual CONTRIBUTIONS to the Democratic Candidates for the 10th District; pointed out who was giving or loaning money to their campaign, the percentage of campaign contributions made up of loans; fund raising for the third quarter of 2017, and for the year to date.

(It was in one section that we made a mathematical error in TJ Cox’s fund raising, which we corrected and for which we apologize, unreservedly. That interim number, the fourth quarter funds raised,  however did not change the totals, the percentage of loans, the relative funds obtained or any other year-to-date figure.)

We got a nudge from someone who said you could not equate money raised with the number of supporters. Maybe, maybe not. But, the relative number of supporters might mean something

So, we have tried to figure out the number of CONTRIBUTORS. Publicly reported figures come from the official filings made to the Federal Elections Commissions. There are two issues regarding the use of those numbers, but the issues apply to all candidates.

First: The FEC data does not require the candidates to include those whose donations do not total less than $200, individually or in the aggregate. Those numbers may be known to the candidates but, cannot be independently verified.

Second: We wanted to find how many individual contributors there might be, so we needed to avoid duplications. That is, several contributions by the same supporter. This did have the effect of making contributions from a husband and wife with the same last name, for example, appear as one supporter. And, contributions from family members with the same last name also appeared as one individual.

In the end, however, all contributions from individuals were totaled and that is why you will see different totals for contributors and contributions.

We also did not include loans to the campaign made by the candidate in the total monies raised.

Really, this view is designed to simply see if there is some relationship, or even if there is a big disconnect, between the overall individual contributions and the number of individual contributors.

SO, REMEMBER: THESE ARE “ABOUT” NUMBERS AND, IF ANYTHING, THEY ARE AN UNDER-COUNT.

But, they are what they are and there are some trends:

Josh Harder led the field, Democratic and Republican, in funds donated by individuals as of the 12-31-17 reporting period. He had raised $935,122 from 581 individuals (distinct last name) and 844 donations.

Jeff Denham, the Republican incumbent, has raised $644,900 from 326 individuals with 594 donations. (Denham leads overall fund raising because he got another $1,162,137 from various committees.)

TJ Cox has received $191,325 in individual donations from 70 contributors (last name distinct) who made 110 contributions.

Virginia Madueno raised $129,325 in total individual contributions (most of that in the fourth quarter of 2017) from 24 individuals who made 26 contributions.

Sue Zwahlen has banked $76,283 in individual contributions by 36 individuals who made 49 contributions.

Dorothy Nygard showed 23 contributors with 69 contributions. A significant number of her contributors made serial contributions but were not family members.

Michael Eggman only recently decided to un-retire as a candidate for the 10th District seat so his 12-31-2017 figures are paltry. Over the entire 2015-2016 campaign he did garner contributions from 764 distinct last name individuals and a little over $1m through the end of the election cycle from individual contributions.

One Takeway: The total individual supporters for Democratic Candidates up to 12-31-2017 is nearly equal to the total Mr. Eggman tallied for the entire period leading up to the 2016 general election.  So, obviously, interest runs high in the race to see who will challenge Mr. Denham.

A Second: Mr. Harder outpaced Mr. Denham in both funds raised and in the number of individual contributors, as of 12-31-2017, and has nearly equaled the total of individual contributors that Mr. Eggman tallied through the end of the 2016 election cycle, even though there are still about eight months left in this two-year election cycle.

A Third: Ms. Madueno came on strong in the last quarter of 2017, raising more money in that period that every other Democratic candidate other than Mr. Harder. Both Mr. Harder and Mr. Cox had a few months jump on Ms. Madueno because of her relatively  late entry into the race.

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